{"id":7423,"date":"2025-09-29T07:44:21","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:44:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pokecon.jp\/job\/?p=7423"},"modified":"2025-09-29T07:44:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:44:21","slug":"%e5%85%88%e7%89%a9%e4%be%a1%e6%a0%bc%e3%83%87%e3%83%bc%e3%82%bf%e3%81%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e3%82%92%e3%81%97%e3%81%a6%e3%81%bf%e3%82%8b-gmo%e3%82%a4%e3%83%b3%e3%82%bf%e3%83%bc%e3%83%8d%e3%83%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pokecon.jp\/job\/7423\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5148\u7269\u4fa1\u683c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u5206\u6790\u3092\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b &#8211; GMO\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7 \u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u672c\u90e8"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<h2 class=\"p1\">\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b<\/h2>\n<p>\u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u672c\u90e8\u30fbAI\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u5ba4\u306eS.S\u3067\u3059\u3002<br \/>\u4eca\u56de\u3082GPT\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089\u91d1\u878d\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3059\u308b\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u306e\u7d9a\u304d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u539f\u6cb9\u306e\u5148\u7269\u4fa1\u683c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\u3088\u304f\u5148\u7269\u3068\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u4e56\u96e2\u3092\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u77ed\u671f\u306e\u65b9\u5411\u611f\u3092\u5360\u3046\u8a71\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u3042\u305f\u308a\u3092\u5b9f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u5206\u6790\u3092\u4ea4\u3048\u306a\u304c\u3089\u898b\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u5148\u7269\u66f2\u7dda\u304b\u3089\u306e\u77ed\u671f\u4e88\u6e2c<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"129\" data-end=\"196\">\u5148\u7269\u3068\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u4e56\u96e2\u3092\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u884c\u3046\u65b9\u6cd5\u3092\u805e\u3044\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u56de\u7b54\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"129\" data-end=\"196\">\u5148\u7269\u306e\u8907\u6570\u9650\u6708\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u3092\u4e26\u3079\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u5148\u7269\u66f2\u7dda\uff08term structure\uff09\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u5f62\u72b6\u306f\u5e02\u5834\u53c2\u52a0\u8005\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u4e88\u60f3\u3092\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"198\" data-end=\"370\">\n<li data-start=\"198\" data-end=\"283\">\n<p data-start=\"200\" data-end=\"283\"><strong data-start=\"200\" data-end=\"219\">\u30b3\u30f3\u30bf\u30f3\u30b4\uff08Contango\uff09<\/strong><br data-start=\"219\" data-end=\"222\"\/>\u9650\u6708\u304c\u5148\u306b\u884c\u304f\u307b\u3069\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u306f\u4fdd\u7ba1\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u3084\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u53cd\u6620\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u73fe\u7269\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u5c06\u6765\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f37\u3044\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"285\" data-end=\"370\">\n<p data-start=\"287\" data-end=\"370\"><strong data-start=\"287\" data-end=\"316\">\u30d0\u30c3\u30af\u30ef\u30fc\u30c7\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff08Backwardation\uff09<\/strong><br data-start=\"316\" data-end=\"319\"\/>\u9650\u6708\u304c\u5148\u306b\u884c\u304f\u307b\u3069\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u5b89\u3044\u3002\u73fe\u7269\u306e\u9700\u7d66\u903c\u8feb\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u304f\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306b\u73fe\u7269\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u9650\u6708\u9593\u306e\u50be\u304d\u3092\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u30681\u30f6\u6708\u5148\u306e\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c9\u306a\u3069\u3092\u7279\u5fb4\u91cf\u306b\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2>\u5206\u6790\u5bfe\u8c61\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf<\/h2>\n<p>\u7121\u6599\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bd\u30fc\u30b9\u304b\u3089\u5148\u7269\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u9577\u671f\u3067\u53d6\u5f97\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306b\u306f\u30cf\u30fc\u30c9\u30eb\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm\">\u7c73\u56fd\u30a8\u30cd\u30eb\u30ae\u30fc\u7701\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30b8<\/a>\u306b\u306f\u8efd\u8cea\u30b9\u30a4\u30fc\u30c8\u539f\u6cb9\u306e\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u5148\u7269\u4fa1\u683c\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u63d0\u4f9b\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u3053\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29741\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_0_20250929-1024x582.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"545\" height=\"310\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_0_20250929-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_0_20250929-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_0_20250929-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_0_20250929-1536x874.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_0_20250929.png 1906w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 545px) 100vw, 545px\"\/><\/p>\n<h2>\u5206\u6790\u74b0\u5883\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7<\/h2>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u304b\u3089\u53d6\u5f97\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u3093\u3067\u304a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<pre class=\"EnlighterJSRAW\" data-enlighter-language=\"generic\">import pandas as pd&#13;\nimport numpy as np&#13;\nimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt&#13;\n&#13;\ndf_spot = pd.read_csv(\"Cushing_OK_WTI_Spot_Price_FOB.csv\")&#13;\ndf_c1 = pd.read_csv(\"Cushing_OK_Crude_Oil_Future_Contract_1.csv\")&#13;\ndf_c2 = pd.read_csv(\"Cushing_OK_Crude_Oil_Future_Contract_2.csv\")&#13;\ndf_c3 = pd.read_csv(\"Cushing_OK_Crude_Oil_Future_Contract_3.csv\")&#13;\ndf_c4 = pd.read_csv(\"Cushing_OK_Crude_Oil_Future_Contract_4.csv\")&#13;\n&#13;\ndf_spot[\"Day\"] = df_spot[\"Day\"].pipe(pd.to_datetime)&#13;\ndf_c1[\"Day\"] = df_c1[\"Day\"].pipe(pd.to_datetime)&#13;\ndf_c2[\"Day\"] = df_c2[\"Day\"].pipe(pd.to_datetime)&#13;\ndf_c3[\"Day\"] = df_c3[\"Day\"].pipe(pd.to_datetime)&#13;\ndf_c4[\"Day\"] = df_c4[\"Day\"].pipe(pd.to_datetime)&#13;\n&#13;\ndf_price = pd.concat((df_spot.set_index([\"Day\"]).squeeze().sort_index(),&#13;\n           df_c1.set_index([\"Day\"]).squeeze().sort_index(),&#13;\n           df_c2.set_index([\"Day\"]).squeeze().sort_index(),&#13;\n           df_c3.set_index([\"Day\"]).squeeze().sort_index(),&#13;\n           df_c4.set_index([\"Day\"]).squeeze().sort_index()), axis=1, keys=[\"spot\", \"1M\", \"2M\", \"3M\", \"4M\"]).dropna()<\/pre>\n<p>\u8a66\u3057\u306b\u8aad\u307f\u8fbc\u3093\u3060\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8868\u793a\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29745\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_1_20250929.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"496\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_1_20250929.png 672w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_1_20250929-300x179.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 496px) 100vw, 496px\"\/><\/p>\n<h2>\u500b\u5225\u5206\u6790<\/h2>\n<h3>\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb1\u30f6\u6708\u5148\u7269\u306e\u4e56\u96e2<\/h3>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u3067\u306f\u307e\u305a\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb1\u30f6\u6708\u5148\u7269\u306e\u4e56\u96e2\u3067\u7fcc\u65e5\u306e\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002<br \/>\u5206\u6790\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30b3\u30fc\u30c9\u3067\u884c\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<pre class=\"EnlighterJSRAW\" data-enlighter-language=\"generic\">pd.concat((df_price[[\"spot\", \"1M\"]].pct_change(axis=1).iloc[:, -1],&#13;\n           df_price[\"spot\"].pct_change().shift(-1)), axis=1, keys=[\"x\", \"y\"])\\&#13;\n.loc[\"2000-01-01\":\"2025-01-01\"]\\&#13;\n.loc[lambda x: x[\"x\"].expanding().rank(pct=True) &gt;2\/3][\"y\"].cumsum().plot(label=\"long\")&#13;\npd.concat((df_price[[\"spot\", \"1M\"]].pct_change(axis=1).iloc[:, -1],&#13;\n           df_price[\"spot\"].pct_change().shift(-1)), axis=1, keys=[\"x\", \"y\"])\\&#13;\n.loc[\"2000-01-01\":\"2025-01-01\"]\\&#13;\n.loc[lambda x: x[\"x\"].expanding().rank(pct=True) \n<p>\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c9\u306e\u30d1\u30fc\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30a4\u30eb\u30e9\u30f3\u30af\u3092\u898b\u3066\u30d7\u30e9\u30b9\u306b\u5927\u304d\u304f\u632f\u308c\u305f\u6642\u306f\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u3057\u3001\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u306b\u5927\u304d\u304f\u632f\u308c\u305f\u6642\u306f\u30b7\u30e7\u30fc\u30c8\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u7d2f\u7a4d\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<br\/>\u9577\u671f\u3067\u307f\u308b\u3068\u4e00\u5b9a\u306e\u30da\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u304c\u7a4d\u307f\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u7cbe\u5ea6\u306f\u307e\u305a\u307e\u305a\u3068\u3044\u3046\u611f\u3058\u3067\u3059\u3002<br\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29748\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_2_20250929-1024x761.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"503\" height=\"374\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_2_20250929-1024x761.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_2_20250929-300x223.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_2_20250929-768x571.png 768w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_2_20250929.png 1090w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 503px) 100vw, 503px\"\/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29750\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_3_20250929.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"457\" height=\"167\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_3_20250929.png 778w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_3_20250929-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_3_20250929-768x280.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 457px) 100vw, 457px\"\/><\/p>\n<h3 data-renderer-start-pos=\"11059\">1\u30f6\u6708\u7269\u30fb2\u30f6\u6708\u7269\u306e\u4e56\u96e2<\/h3>\n<p>\u3055\u3089\u306b\u5148\u3092\u307f\u30661\u30f6\u6708\u7269\u3092\u53d6\u5f15\u3059\u308b\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306e\u50be\u5411\u304c\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u30012020\u5e74\u306e\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u3067\u9700\u8981\u304c\u4e00\u6642\u7684\u306b\u6025\u6e1b\u3057\u305f\u6642\u306f\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u5927\u304d\u304f\u5916\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<br\/>\u3053\u306e\u8fba\u308a\u306f\u4ed6\u306e\u9700\u8981\u30fb\u4f9b\u7d66\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\u3068\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u5206\u6790\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29754\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_4_20250929-1024x719.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"503\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_4_20250929-1024x719.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_4_20250929-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_4_20250929-768x539.png 768w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_4_20250929.png 1122w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 503px) 100vw, 503px\"\/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-29755\" src=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_5_20250929.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"494\" height=\"185\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_5_20250929.png 774w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_5_20250929-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_5_20250929-768x288.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 494px) 100vw, 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width=\"532\" height=\"317\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_6_20250929-1024x610.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_6_20250929-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_6_20250929-768x457.png 768w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_6_20250929-1536x915.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.gmo-jisedai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/spot_fwd_6_20250929.png 1538w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 532px) 100vw, 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href=\"https:\/\/recruit.gmo.jp\/engineer\/jisedai\/blog\/oil_spot_fwd_diff\/\">\u5143\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b \u30b0\u30eb\u30fc\u30d7\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u672c\u90e8\u30fbAI\u7814\u7a76\u958b\u767a\u5ba4\u306eS.S\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u3082GPT\u306b\u805e\u304d\u306a\u304c\u3089\u91d1\u878d\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3059\u308b\u30b7\u30ea\u30fc\u30ba\u306e\u7d9a\u304d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u539f\u6cb9\u306e\u5148\u7269\u4fa1\u683c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3088\u304f\u5148\u7269\u3068\u30b9\u30dd\u30c3\u30c8\u306e\u4e56\u96e2\u3092\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u77ed\u671f\u306e\u65b9\u5411 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